Why Betting Progressions Work The following is a synopsis of a chapter in my next book.
Mathematically, betting progressions don't work. If you compare it to a coin flip which has a 50-50 chance of being heads or tails, there is no advantage to using a betting progression. You have nothing to gain, but also, you have nothing to lose. Some will debate this, but you can't have it both ways. Either progressions have no effect or they do. I concede that there are differences between the systems, but that will have to wait for another chapter.
I actually don't know "why" they work, but I've got some ideas. Ironically, the only author who gave a reason why they work is card counter Henry Tamburin. Mr. Tamburin, in his classic Blackjack - Take the Money and Run, listed two betting progressions and the following reason why they work: "A win progression has some scientific validity especially for multiple deck games. Your average bet will be somewhat larger in a favorable shoe compared to an unfavorable shoe and this is what allows you to win more in winning streaks and lose less in losing streaks." Well, isn't that what it's all about anyway?
I believe a lot of the success enjoyed by progression bettors comes, not from the superiority of their system, but from how they play the game. It may be that it's not how the progression works, but how you work the progression. What follows are about 18 reasons why progression betting works or why card counting is being countered to a point where it is less profitable.
1. Players tend to play their chip stack and their cards. A progression player keeps a constant eye on their chip stack. Once ahead, they seldom lose their winnings back to the casino. This may mean playing more conservatively at times. For example, you set a goal to win 20 units (whatever your unit is), and you are up 18 units. At this point, you switch to a conservative posture because the goal is one or two bets away. The most your next bet should be is two units, even if your progression calls for a four unit bet, or the play calls for a double down which would be more than two units. The exception is if a split is called for, and you would be stuck with a losing hand if not split. 8 - 8 and A - A come to mind here. If you were two units away and you bet four units, got a double down hand and lost 8 units, you would have a major setback. This is the reason to become more conservative when near ones win goal.
2. When you win a big (3,4, or more units) bet, drop back to a one unit bet to lock in the winnings. Regardless of which progression you use, eventually you are going to be in the situation of having a large bet out. An example is a three unit bet is placed after winning two hands in a row when playing a 1 - 2 - 3 - 5 - 1 - 1... progression. Now, you don't need to be conservative like #1 above, and you received the perfect double down hand, a 6 - 5 vs a dealer 5 up card. You make the double down bet and win 6 units. Now is the time to drop down to 1 or 2 units and lock in a big win for that series, rather than bet 5 units as the progression calls for. Always lock in a big win.
3. Cut your losses off at 4, 5, or 6 in a row. The win rate on my computer simulations is 47.5% for the player, and 52.5% for the casino. Even hand played games will yield about 48% player and 52% casino (when pushes aren't counted). There isn't much way around these figures. However, if you were to never lose 6 in a row, or 5 in a row, the percentage would approach 50%. This is exactly what some players do. Two authors, John Patrick and George Pappadopoulos, do just that. They lose four hands in a row and they leave to find another table. If you do this every time you have a string of losses, you might move around quite a bit. However, you push your win percentage up to 50% and your profits become all of the extras like double downs, naturals, and splits. If the dealer is winning a long series of hands, but the table has otherwise been profitable and pleasant, just take a bathroom break or stretch break. The dealer will hold your spot. Whether this will change anything in the long run is debatable, but it will at least stop your losing streak.
4. Use a Milestone Technique. Money management is one of the pillars of winning blackjack, and setting milestones is one of the pillars of money management. Milestones are used to prevent a great winning session from becoming a mediocre one. A milestone is an amount one sets which becomes a short term win goal. For example, I started my session with $200 and a goal of winning at least $100 more. This is my first milestone. I'm going to keep playing to reach my goal of winning $100. However, I'm going to keep playing past the goal. I keep playing, and I set a new mile stone of $150 profits. Once I reach my goal of $150 and playing conditions are still good, I will again set another short term goal of $200. As long as you are winning, keep setting the milestone higher. You will be able to take advantage of a hot table and not leave once you have won your initial goal.
5. Set a fall back amount. This is a companion to the milestone technique. The fall back amount is a set point which, if you "fall back" to, initiates stopping that session. For example, if your goal is to win $100 (as above) and you've won up to $75, you would want to set $50 profit as your fall back amount. Hopefully you would keep winning toward your goal, but if the tide turns and you start losing, once you lose down to the $50 level, stop the session. This guarantees a winning session. It's only a $50 win, but it's still a win. It'll buy you and the spouse a steak dinner. Don't sit there and lose it all back to the casino and cry in your free beer.
6. Set a loss limit. I usually start a session with about half of what I am willing to lose. If I start with 40 units, I will set a loss limit of 20 units. Once I lose the 20 units, the session is over. The only reason for the extra 20 units is if I need it to make a double down or split when I'm close to 20 units down. If its a good bet, or a mandatory one like to split 8s, I might have to dip below the 20 unit loss limit, so the extra units can come in handy. You want a little extra so you don't play scared at that moment. Keep the 20 unit loss limit pretty firm. The reason is, if you have two losing sessions in a row, you have only lost one session bankroll instead of two. You live to play again. With the second session bankroll, you can recover. To lose three sessions in a row is rare even for an average player, so set a loss limit at one half of your session bankroll.
7. Learn from the squirrels and the ants, grasshopper. Squirrels and ants have a "store up" mentality. Squirrels store up food for the winter. In the fall they eat a little and store away a little. Ants have a similar philosophy for their survival. They store extra food down deep in the anthill. They can't come out in the cold temperatures to find food in the winter. For the blackjack player, "squirreling" is a technique of moving some chips from the table to a safe place out of the view of the pit bosses. My technique is to separate my chips in half near the beginning of a session. Once I'm safely ahead, I start discreetly moving chips into my pocket. Once I have half in, and I'm still winning, I work on getting the rest into the pockets. Once I have my original starting bankroll safely in my pocket, it can't come out until the next session. At this point, I'm guaranteed not to lose. I may not win much, but I'm not going to lose this session. As the winnings continue, keep enough in front of you to play with, and slip the rest into the "vault", your pocket or purse. After all, it's your money.
8. Use Proportional Betting. One of the drawbacks to squirrelling away your winnings is you may not know how much you have won until a session is over. A technique used when in a winning session to win even more is proportional betting. A set percentage of your bankroll is bet. As you win or lose, one's bet is adjusted up or down to remain the same proportion of the bankroll. Let's say I start with $500, and my unit bet is $10. If I win up to $750, I will adjust my bet up to $15 to stay the same proportion of the bankroll (In this example, the bet remains at 2% of the bankroll.) Conversely, if I lose, and my bankroll diminishes, I may lower my unit bet proportionately to remain at 2% of my bankroll. This is somewhat akin to Kelly Betting used by card counters. They bet their advantage, but as the bankroll fluctuates up or down, the unit bet rises and falls with the bankroll.
9. Big Bets Out, Go Conservative. This idea runs slightly contrary to conventional play, but bear with me. Conservative doesn't mean scared. Conservative means you minimize risk. Doubling down against a dealer six with your 11 is a low risk play. You wouldn't play conservative here no matter the size of the bet out. But what if the dealer has a ten up card, and you had a four or five unit bet out? The risk suddenly increases. The low risk play is to hit and not double down. An eight or ten unit loss could be devastating to your chip stack. A four unit loss wouldn't do it any good, but you already made that bet, and you can't back out. But you can back down from risking the eight unit loss.
10. Use a Limited Negative Progression. I just said a dirty word - NEGATIVE PROGRESSION. I did, however, precede it with the word limited. The Martingale is an unlimited negative progression. NEVER USE A MARTINGALE! A limited negative progression raises the bet when losing once or twice during a losing series. I can show you mathematically that the losses are no greater than when flat betting, but not here. I'll write another dissertation about that later. David Popik first demonstrated the use of a limited negative progression in his book, Winning Blackjack Without Counting Cards. He raised the wager only once during a losing series, and made a huge difference. In my book, Easy Blackjack for the Average Joe, developed two negative progressions which work beautifully. If you have the cajones, give one of them a try. For you ladies, having cajones is a state of mind.
11. Change Progressions midstream. It is very easy to change betting progressions. If play is "choppy", then a system where the second bet drops down to a one unit bet, such as the New York System by John Patrick, will work better. If your wins are mostly two in a row, my E - Z Bet system will win more. If the losses are never or seldom more than four in a row, one of the limited negative progressions in my book will double your win rate. So, when playing progressions, use one that is appropriate for the situation.
12. The Only Way to Beat a Continuous Shuffling Machine is to use a Betting Progression. A continuous shuffling machine, or CSM, is a device which acts as a discard tray, shuffling machine and shoe in one. The dealer takes the cards at the end of a hand and places them into the top of the CSM. There they are shuffled in with the rest of the cards in a random fashion, and are later fed into a shoe at the front of the machine. Card counting is impossible when playing one of these. The only way to win is to use a betting progression. I have a theory why I win against these machines. They shuffle so well that you get a near random selection of cards coming out. Because of this good mix, the dealer busts at a normal frequency and you get your share of blackjacks and winning totals. This fits right into betting a positive and negative progression simultaneously, which is what I play. Almost any positive progression will work, and either Popik's or my negative progressions work great. There are seldom more than four losses in a row with these machines, making a negative progression work like a charm.
13. Progression Players Don't Succumb to the Gambler's Fallacy. This is the impression some authors want to give the reader. The Gambler's Fallacy is a belief that you are "due" for a win. You are never due for a win, whether progressing or counting. Betting progressions are designed around the frequency of wins in a row. They are mathematically developed to improve winning based on these percentages. The negative progressions are based on the percentages of losses in a row. Progressions are based on win and pull back, on lock in bets, and on percentage of wins and losses in a row. They are designed to take advantage of runs, but not lose back most of your winnings. They are designed to get more money out to win more from those blackjacks, double downs and splits. They are designed to give the casino a run for their money and not just take it in the rear. You are due, but only because you studied and prepared yourself to win.
14. Progression Players look for Optimum Playing Conditions. There is almost always a section in a blackjack book about picking a table, optimum playing conditions, rules, fatigue, drinking, and other things which affect your play. Whether you are counting cards or progressing, these rules apply. They are:
Stay sober Don't play tired Pick a table where players are winning Play the best rules possible
You can drink a bit if playing progressions, but watch out. You can lose you inhibitions easily. You can't drink at all when counting cards. Fatigue is almost as bad as drinking. If you are tired, get some rest. The tables will be there in the morning. Listen for winners. They are loud and they express it. Look at chip stacks. High stacks generally indicate a good table. Find the best rules possible. Never play a six-five game. It hurts a progression player and absolutely kills a card counter.
15. Incorporate a Counting System with a Betting Progression. They complement each other very well. I can't take credit for this idea. It also was first put forth by Henry Tamburin. He called it a streak count. What I like to do is use a relatively easy counting system with two different progressions. When the count is positive, use the more agressive progression. When it is negative, use a more conservative progression, or just flat bet if it becomes highly negative. By using a progression, you can disguise the fact that you are counting. When counting, you know when to press hard with the progression or ease up. The two systems aren't mutually exclusive, they are complementary.
16. A Progression Increases the Average Bet Size Without Increasing the Unit Bet. By increasing the average bet size, one wins more from Blackjacks, doubles, and splits. If you double the average bet size, you will double the earnings from the "extras". By progressing, a $5 unit bet can have an average bet of $10, and this increases the amount won.
17. All Betting Progressions are not Created Equal. Most betting progressions yield about the same percentage win. Some, however are so aggressive that they could lose more than they win. A case in point is the progression authored by Mike Goodman back in the '60's. The progression is a positive progression with the sequence in units, 1 - 2 - 3 - 5 - 5 - 7.5 - 7.5... and stay at 7.5 units until you lose. I did the math and found that because so much is lost at the sixth bet of the series, the W(6) bet, that this progression had the lowest gain of all of the systems. The average first loss becomes high and this is detrimental to the profitability of the progression. If you win five bets in a row, I advise the player to consider dropping down to a minimum bet or maybe a two unit bet and begin the progression over again. If you continue to win, great, but at five wins in a row, the percentages are not in your favor. Six wins in a row occurs only about 3% of the time, so you are bucking the averages. At this point you have had a good run. Drop down and save your winnings.
18. Trends in Blackjack Tend to Favor Progression Play over Card Counting. Trend No. 1: 6:5 Blackjack In September on my annual pilgrimage to Mecca (Las Vegas), I found out there were only 12 single deck tables in Las Vegas which payed 3:2 for a natural. That's tables, not casinos. Why? Because card counting can't beat it. To be honest, betting progressions aren't as profitable against 6:5 either. This trend says that eventually there will be no more single deck games. Trend No. 2: 6:5 Two Deck Games I saw some of these during the pilgrimage. I can see what is happening. Although a lot less profitable than single deck games, two deck games can be beaten by counting cards. However, just like single deck, a 6:5 two deck game cannot be beaten. I predict we will see a proliferation of these games because the casinos want you to play, but not win. Trend No. 3: Continuous Shuffling Machines and Shuffling Machines CSM's have already been discussed. The casino has many reasons to use them. They play more hands per hour, they thwart cheating, and the cards can't be counted. The shuffling machines thwart shuffle tracking which is another technique used by advantage players. Eventually our choices will be limited to machine shuffled and CSM shuffled multi-deck games, or 1 and 2 deck 6:5 games. These trends all disfavor the card counter, the average player, and the progression player, and favor the casinos.
I apologize for the length of this page, but It has some important information I want to share. It was reduced from 21 pages in my book though. I hope some of these tips and techniques will be helpful the next time you play.
