Why is there an advantage
when Counting Cards?
The reasons the player has an advantage when there is an excess of ten value cards, as well as Aces and nines, are many. The first and most obvious is the player will receive more Blackjacks. But, you say, so will the dealer. True, but you get paid 3 to 2 for a Blackjack, while the dealer only gets to keep your bet, 1 to 1. Also, and we will visit this later, if the count is positive when the Blackjack occurs, you may have placed a larger bet. If so, your 3 to 2 payoff will be multiplied. Because player Blackjacks are such a large part of the gain, games where a Blackjack pays less than 3 to two are difficult to win.
A second reason having an excess of large cards remaining gives the player an advantage is when dealt a hand of eleven, ten, or nine. These are hard double down opportunities, and with an excess of large cards left in the deck, there is an improved chance of success. If there is an excess of ten cards, these hands will become 21, 20, and 19, respectively. Even catching a nine makes these three strong pat hands.
A third reason having a positive count is beneficial is in making playing decisions. Knowledge is power, and knowing there is an excess of tens and Aces makes you more powerful. For example, basic strategy dictates you double down on a nine versus the dealer 3 through 6 up card. With an excess of ten cards and aces, you can safely double down on 9 versus a dealer 7. The same goes for 10 versus 10, or 11 versus ace in multi-deck games. On the other end, you normally hit the 9 versus the 2 up card, but with a positive count, you also can double down. Even doubling down on an 8 versus a dealer 5 or 6 up becomes a profitable move. Finally, should you choose not to double down on these, you will win a greater number of them due to the plus count.
A fourth reason having a plus count can benefit you is in the playing of soft hands. Basic strategy has you stand on all soft 19’s. A positive count allows the player to double down against the vulnerable dealer five or six up.
A fifth reason you may benefit from a plus count is in playing the insurance side bet. With a plus three count or greater, taking insurance is a safer bet, because instead of having the normal house advantage, it shifts to a player advantage. When I am using my betting progression and not counting cards and have more than one unit bet, I insure my Blackjacks. Otherwise, I don’t take insurance. When counting cards, with a plus three or greater count I can take insurance safely with any hand. If the count were less than plus three, even with blackjack, it would be unwise. A greatly negative count would certainly call for you to not take insurance. This is the most profitable of playing strategy changes, and each plus-minus system has an insurance coefficient. The higher the coefficient, the safer it is to use for insurance betting purposes.
A sixth benefit of having an excess of large cards is that you will receive more pat hands with large bets out. You will get more ten-ten’s, ten-nine’s, A-A, A-9, 9-9, 10-8, 10-7, and 9-8 hands. Although 17 and 18 aren’t that strong, they still beat a stiff any day of the week. Getting A-A and 9-9 with more money out and a player advantage is going to yield some hefty rewards, and if you are brave, 10-10 could be split. This will probably say to the pit boss that you are either a card counter, drunk or stupid. So if you decide to make this move, and you aren’t drunk, pretend you are.
Extra Aces, besides being the other half of a blackjack and making a great splitting hand (A-A), combine well with split 10s, 9s, 8s, and 7s. Aces are great to receive when doubling down on a 10, 9, or even an 8 – just not 11. Aces are also welcome on soft double downs such as A-6, A-7, and A-8. Finally, Aces are by definition a part of soft hands. Receiving more soft hands leads to more soft doubling. Of course to be safer, soft doubling should be done against a dealer three through six up cards. You will find some counting systems with indices for expanding soft doubling.
Now let’s turn our attention to the dealer and what an excess of tens and Aces do to him/her. Tens combine with two through six to make dealer stiffs, while Aces combine with Ace through five to make undesirable soft hands. Tens in excess lead to busting of the above stiffs more frequently. Aces make dealer stiffs of twelve through fifteen worse, and make a dealer eleven into a stiff twelve, just as it does yours.
An excess of nines can also benefit a good many player hands, and both create and bust dealer stiffs. For example, 9-9 is a good splitting hand, 10-9 is a winning hand, and Ace-9 is very strong. Nine-3 through nine-7 are dealer stiffs, and dealer thirteen through sixteen are busted by nines. Nines aren’t too unwelcome on an eleven double down or even a 10 double down. Finally, nines are welcome on split Aces, and some soft doubles aren’t hurt too badly by a nine.
Now, let’s discuss what an excess of small cards does to you and for the dealer. With an excess of small cards both you and the dealer receive more stiff hands. However, you are more vulnerable because so often you stand on your stiff hands. The dealer cannot stand on them, so with an excess of 2s through 6s, the dealer will turn more of his/her stiffs into pat hands. Fortunately, you also will be hitting your stiff hands when the dealer has a seven through Ace up card showing, so you too will make more of your stiffs into pat hands, but you will be doing it with a minimum bet out due to the negative count. Lastly, you may benefit from doubling on soft totals Ace-2 through Ace-7, but you may be hesitant to do so with a negative count and dealer advantage. This is a situation where you should know the indices for the correct play.
One thing to remember is that just because the count is positive, you still will lose. Also, you will win quite a few hands when the count is negative. Many a card counter loses with a positive count and a big bet out. Likewise, many a counter has received a Blackjack when the count was negative. You must remember that your advantage is small, but so is theirs. In the short term there will be ups and downs, but in the long term, your advantage from counting cards will make you a winner.
