Pseudo-Counting Systems
1. The Proportion Count
From: The Las Vegas Expert's Guide to Craps, Blackjack and Card Games by Robert Scharff, 1975
Mr. Scharff presents a simple method which has been used in Las Vegas for years. The method counts Ten value cards with a side count of Aces. The information is beneficial for betting levels, double down plays, insurance bets, and predicting the chance of busting.
The technique is based on the proportion of tens in the deck and the average number of cards per hand.Using an average of three cards per hand, and a ten-value card concentration of 33% (not including Aces), one could expect to see one ten card per hand.As the hands are played, a hand with one ten card is considered neutral.A hand with two ten cards would have a minus one count.A hand with no tens would have a value of plus one.The player observes all of the hands as they are played, and keeps a running count.After the hands are counted, a plus count means there is an excess of tens remaining in the rest of the decks to be played.A negative count indicates the opposite there is a ten card deficit in the remaining cards.
The side count of Aces allows the player to judge whether there is a greater than normal chance ofreceiving a natural (Blackjack).When the count is highly negative, the player could more safely hit stiff hands.
The strength of this system is its simplicity.With a little practice, anyone could master this system.The weakness is in its lack of precision.The three cards per hand figure is slightly higher than the 2.75 cards per hand I obtained when running 300 billion hand simulations, but that is an average, and is not always accurate over a shoe.Also, Mr. Scharffsimply advised the player to bet heavy when the odds favor the player, and to drop out or bet small amounts at other times.The reader is on his/her own to determine the values of the bets.
2. E-Z Count
From: Easy Blackjack for the Average Joe by Billy Joe Garner, 2004
Although I didn't know about Mr. Scharff's proportion count when I came up with E-Z Count, there are some similarities.E-Z Count is also based on the number of tens per hand.I found there were 2.75 cards per hand on average.We know that ten cards compose 30.77% of the cards in the deck.I next calculated the number of tens one expects to see for two to seven hands.When rounded, there should be one ten per hand played.This is the same conclusion Mr. Scharff reached, even though we used different numbers to derive it.
The player simply totals the number of hands played, subtracts the number of tens counted, and derives a count for that round.For example, if you have a total of seven hands and you only saw six tens, the count would be seven minus six or +1.Likewise, if you saw 9 tens, the count would be seven minus nine or -2.You carry this count forward from round to round.This is a running count.As with any other system, the true count must be calculated and used for making decisions.
If you are considering taking insurance, insure with a true count of plus two or greater.I suggest you use it to switch from a conservative to aggressive betting progression.With a true count of plus two switch to aggressive progressions.
The strengths of this system are it is easy to learn and easy to use.The weakness is loss of accuracy due to rounding and, as with any system where the number of decks must be estimated, error can occur.
3. Cardoza Non-Counter Strategy - Five Easy Steps
From: Winning Casino Blackjack for the Non-Counter by Avery Cardoza, Third Ed., 2002
Note: the system is developed for single deck play.
Step 1: When many small cards have been played in the first round, it is to the player's advantage.Bet 3 or 4 units instead of your normal 1 or 2 unit bet.
Step 2: If on succeeding rounds you estimate that there are still a disproportionate number of high cards remaining, continue to bet at a high level.
Step 3: If the cumulative distribution of cards seems to be fairly normal after a round of play, bet your neutral or minimum bet.
Step 4: If a disproportionate number of high cards appear in the first round, then place your minimum one unit bet.
Step 5: If the cumulative distribution of cards appears to be normal and you notice more Aces have appeared, downgrade your bet to one unit.
(Note: Check to be sure the quotes are exact)
Advantages: You don't have to count cards. You observe and decide the deck's composition is advantageous or not.
Disadvantage: Designed for single deck only, although it probably could be used in a two deck game.
4. Card Observation
Blackjack the Smart Way by Richard Harvey
Card Observation is a technique of looking at the cards on the table and the order which they came out to determine what the hole card is and how to play your hand.Because you are going to have a good idea what the dealer hole card is, you may use this for clues whether insurance is a good bet.
One analyzes the number of tens which are showing.Are they proportionate to their expected concentration?Is there an excess of other cards which would give a clue as to which card might come up next or the dealer hole card?Which were the last cards to be dealt?Do they give a clue to what is next?Card Observation and analysis is very useful in answering these questions.
Advantages:Very helpful to counters and non-counters alike by giving the player a picture of the most recent flow of cards.Card Observation can be employed on any hand at any time.I have used it to my advantage many times.
Disadvantage: Mostly for playing decisions and not betting decisions, especially in multiple decks.
Editorial Comment: If Richard Harvey has a legacy in Blackjack, Card Observation will be a big part of that legacy.
5. The Imperial II Count Strategy
Commando Craps and Blackjack by John Gollehon, 2004
This strategy only counts small cards and is designed for tables which are full or near full.It is based on the proportion of 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, and 6s, and the number of cards dealt, Mr. Gollehon calculated the target numbers for the count.Variables include the number of hands played, six or seven, and the dealer up card value.High dealer up cards use higher target numbers than when the dealer has a 2 through 6 up.
Mr. Gollehon also introduces a technique to keep up with the count by using a chip as the face of a clock, with different counts at the various positions on the face.Lastly, he gives guidelines for betting based on the count.
Advantages: Simple, easy to learn and use.It can be used for shoe games.
Disadvantages: Restricted in its use to games with six or seven players.
6. Deck Tracking
Powerful Profits from Blackjack by Victor Royer, 2002
Deck Tracking involves looking at the cards dealt in the first hand of a single deck, and tracking the Aces, tens, and fives.Since you know the proportion there should be, you can answer the following question: Is the remainder of the deck favorable or unfavorable? If unfavorable, a minimum bet is placed.If favorable, the player places a larger bet.There are two bets, and they are up to you to determine the size.One should not have a large bet spread at a single deck game, so as not to be accused of counting cards.This holds for any system, simple as this one is, or a more complex one.To the casino, they could care less that you are using a simple system - you are still barred from playing.
Advantages: Easy to learn, simple, yet offering useful information.
Disadvantage:Primarily for a single deck game.It probably could be adapted for use in a two deck game by carrying over the favorable/unfavorable status for a few hands.
7. Babies to 10's
Blackjack Bluebook II by Fred Renzey, 2004
Mr. Renzey didn't give this as the title of this form of table scanning.He used Babies (small cards) to 10's to determine proper play on seven hands called the Magnificent 7.The babies are the 2's, 3's, 4's, and 5's, and the tens are all of the ten value cards.When one scans the table, compare the number of babies to 10's.Are there more babies than tens showing?Are there more tens showing?Now, quantify these: How many more tens or babies are there?
Now, these are the seven hands referred to:
12 vs Dealer 4
13 vs Dealer 2
16 vs Dealer 10
9 vs Dealer 2
A/7 vs dealer 2
A/8 vs Dealer 6
11 vs Dealer A
Mr. Renzey suggests you play these seven hands differently than you would if playing basic strategy.For example, you have a 16 and the Dealer has a 10 up card.Basic strategy calls for you to hit your 16, but if you count more babies than tens, the correct move is to stand.Why?You already know enough to figure this out.You are going to need a baby, and an excess of them were just played.
The Babies to 10's scan is simply a plus-minus count for a moment in time to help you with playing the above hands.This takes it beyond some of the other table scanning techniques for these seven hands.The information about babies to tens could also be used to adjust ones bet for the next hand as well.When you just saw a table full of babies, increase your next bet.This sounds like the previous tracking system of Victor Royer now, and it could be.You just gained some information, so why not use it.You are just a heartbeat away from counting cards now.
Advantages: Easy to learn and not mentally strenuous to use.The list of hands could be expanded to include other borderline hands.The information could also be used for betting purposes after the first hand of a single deck game.
Disadvantages:As published it is limited to those seven hands, however, as we discussed, could be expanded to be used for betting as well.
The pseudo-counting systems are all easy to learn, and master.I suggest you read each authors book to get a complete presentation of each system.This is especially true of Blackjack the Smart Way by Richard Harvey.He goes into great detail on card observation.
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