Betting Progression Discussion
Simple System #1
The first system has probably been around since betting began, but I found it in
a book by Richard Harvey, Blackjack the Smart Way [1999]. One unit = your
minimum bet. A unit could be $5, $25, or more. In units, the system looks like
the following:
1 - 2 - 3 - Repeat
This is the system I used as an example earlier. You start with one unit, and if
you win, go to two units. If you win two, go to three units. This is the end of
progress. At this point, repeat the sequence until you lose. At any point that
you lose, drop to one unit and bet one unit until you win. Then you start the
winning progression over again. This is a simple but effective system. The most
you can lose is three units unless you double or split.
Harvey recommends you play one unit when:
1] You join the table.
2] The deck(s) is (are) shuffled.
3] A new player joins the table.
4] The cards are bad.
One criticism of this system is you must win three in a row to collect any money
from the house. The unit you drag after winning the second bet is your original
unit. My research shows you win three in a row about one out of four series.
When I begin play, I start with this progression. I like to get a feel for what is
happening at the table. As long as I am winning with this system, I stick with it.
If play becomes “choppy”, I switch to a system that compensates for choppy
play by either repeating the first bet or dropping back (regression) on the
second bet. If losing streaks are short such as no more than three in a row, I
may add either Popik’s losing series bet, Intermediate System #1, or E-Z bet,
Conservative Losing progression. The goal is to win with the simplest system
with the least risk. Although I demonstrate that you will lose less by using
these limited negative progressions, they do add volatility to your game. There
is also more stress when using them, so if I’m winning without them, they aren’t
needed.
Simple System 2
The second simple system is one I came up with to begin dragging after the first
win. I have used this successfully and, when the conditions merit, it is a good
fall back system. It is a good “choppy” game system. The system is harder to
manage at times due to its use of half units. Numerically, in units, it looks like
the following:
1 - 1 - 1½ - 2 - 3 - Repeat
As with Harvey’s system, once you lose, you flat bet one unit until you win.
Once you hit the two-unit level, be more conservative.
The advantage to the system is that after each win you drag part of it rather
than letting it all ride. A disadvantage is it will progress at a slightly slower
rate. One more note about this system: when the deck seems to be player
biased, the sixth bet could be increased to four units, then dropped down.
Winning streaks of greater than six in a row are very rare, occurring about two
to three percent of the total number of groups.
Simple Systems 3 & 4
The source of the next system is Henry J. Tamburin, from his book, Blackjack,
Take the Money and Run (1994). This is about as simple as it gets. There are
two levels, small and large bets. The small bet is a one-unit wager that is
placed after a loss and continued until you win. The large bet may be two or
three units, and is placed after a win and continued until you lose. The sequence
is:
win: 2 units, lose: 1 unit; or win: 3 units, lose: 1 unit
Simple System #5
Also from Tamburin, system #4 is a progressive system. Numerically, it looks like
the following in units:
1 - 2 - 3 - 5, then back to 1
When you lose, bet one unit until you win. Tamburin and others discuss how a
progressive bet falls apart when you have a series of win - lose - win - lose….
During these periods you can lose more than you win because you only win a
one-unit bet followed by a two-unit loss. This is referred to as choppy and does
occur for short periods. It is disheartening when it occurs, but it is the price you
pay. The longer winning streaks make up for brief periods of choppiness.
To counter the choppiness, you may flat bet until the period is over, or change to
one of the following intermediate systems that compensate for it. The way they
compensate is by making the second bet a one-unit bet and, when lost, go to
two units on the next hand (see Intermediate Systems #2 and #3).
Simple System 6
This simple system was a late addition to the systems, but a welcome one. The
origin for this is the book, Progression Blackjack, by Donald Dahl. The book is an
enjoyable read. He feels progressive betting is the way to win and the days of
counting are numbered. He was inspired by the book How To Win, by Mike
Goodman. His betting sequence in units is as follows:
2-2-3-3-4-4-6-6-10-10-14-14-20-20
He gives a progression for $2 to $100 unit but they all follow the above pattern.
He doesn’t believe in negative or losing progression. On the losing side he
simply flat bets until a win occurs then re-enters the progression above. If you
don’t believe in counting, then you will enjoy Dahl’s book.
Simple System 7
Earlier I mentioned Mike Goodman and how he was the first to publish a book,
How to Win, which promoted betting progressions. His betting progression, in
units is as follows:
2 - 4 – 6 – 10 – 10 – 15 ‘til lose
He referred to it as a “slow progression.” What he meant is you start to pull
back some of your winnings, and bet the rest.
Although this looks like it might win more money than the earlier ones, the
starting wager is two units rather than one. Mr. Goodman was a believer in not
regressing one’s bet. He kept pressing the bets and hoped for a long streak.
When a long run of wins occurred, he cleaned up, but until then, his winnings
would suffer. He was not what one would call a “Grinder.”
Intermediate System 8
The source of this system is David Popik and his book titled Winning Blackjack
Without Counting Cards (1984).
Numerically, in units, his system is as follows:
W (1) - 2 - 1 - 1 - 1 …until lose
L (1) - 1 - 1 - 2 - 1 …until win
As you can see the system is primarily one-unit bets with strategically placed
two-unit bets. Regarding the win side of the progression, Popik states, “This is
a typical example of losing out on winning streaks, but these streaks are few
and far between”. My research shows they aren’t that far apart.
This is the first progression to use a negative progression. A negative
progression is one where there is an increase in the bet amount when on a
losing streak. You will hear a lot of authors condemn negative progression as
risky. It is if done ad infinitum until one wins (see the Martingale), but as you
will see later, no harm is done with a little strategically placed doubling up. As a
matter of fact, the losses decrease with the increase in wager at the L(4)
wager. So, don’t form an opinion just yet.
Intermediate System 9
In 1983, John Patrick wrote a book titled So You Wanna Be A Gambler –
Blackjack. This book is a personal favorite and a great book for your collection.
Although it was written over 20 years ago, I felt like he wrote it with the same
convictions and philosophy that I have today. His basic strategy is more
conservative than most. His system is described as “a regression/progression
type of wager, rather than an ordinary straight progression method.” After the
first win, Patrick decreases the wager to one unit. In doing so, he locks in at
least a one-unit profit for that series. Should you win the second wager, the
system progresses until a loss occurs. On the losing side, he suggests you flat
bet two units. The system was designed to profit even during choppy play. The
reason is that you win two units, then drop down to one unit for the loss to
follow.
Numerically it looks like the following:
W (1) - 1 - 2 - 3 - 3 - 4 - 5
L (1) - 2 - 2 - 2
W (1) is a two-unit starting bet, or is the first win after a losing series. The
reason you only see four bets on the loss side is he feels you should quit if you
sustain four losses in a row. Patrick labeled this progression the New York
system because it starts out 2-1-2, and with the loss bet always at two units, it
is always 2-1-2. One of the New York City area codes is 2-1-2, hence the name.
I have only a couple of comments about this ingenious system. Due to the
protection of dropping down to one unit, a side effect is you are to the fourth
wager before you finally get to a three-unit bet. The net effect is to make this a
less volatile and slower progression. Another ingenious characteristic is
repeating the 3-unit bet. By doing this you in effect have another lock in of
previous winnings. Another observation is should you win two bets then lose
two, you will be down by one unit. This system is more aggressive than Popik’s.
Should you have 4, 5, or 6 wins in a row, you are able to capitalize.
Intermediate System 10
George Pappadopoulos in his book Blackjack’s Hidden Secrets (1999) introduces
his system which he calls the telephone number system. The sequence for
winning is to start by betting two units. If you win, drop to one unit. Should you
win again, the third bet would go up to two units. The fourth progresses to
three units, and the fifth progresses to four units.
Numerically it looks like the following:
2 - 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5, etcetera
The losing sequence is as follows:
2 - 2 - 2 - 2
This is very similar to Patrick’s New York system and he acknowledges Patrick for
his contribution. He also suggests you hang around for only four losses. On the
winning side the only difference is that Patrick repeats the three-unit bet before
going up to four units, making the Pappadopoulos system a bit more aggressive
but without the second lock in.
This seems to be the appropriate time to discuss the 2-1-2 System. This is a
successful system with a logical reason for dropping down to one unit after W
(1). However, I think there is more success with a two-unit bet placed there and
then drop to one unit. At first glance to drop down to one unit on the second
bet seems to be the proper move. However, this is not the only factor. Of the
300 billion hands, 14.33% were double downs and splits. Also, 4.743% were
Blackjacks. By placing a two-unit bet when the win rate is 25%, rather than the
third bet (at 12% win rate), you double the amount won when doubles, splits
and blackjacks occur here. With double the action and high win rates, having a
two-unit bet at the second position in effect doubles the win amount.
The following example compares the second spot were you to make bets of five
and ten dollars.
$5 or One Unit………Blackjack pays $7.50
Double Down pays $10
Split Pair pays $10
Win the Hand pays $5
$10 or two Units…….Blackjack pays $15
Double Down pays $20
Split Pair pays $20
Win the Hand pays $10
If this doesn’t seem logical to you, stick to the 2-1-2 system. This is a very good
system and you can win money with it. It especially works well in choppy play.
You must, at some place, drop to one unit or repeat a bet to have a successful
progressive winning sequence. On every hand you have about a 50-50 chance
of winning. If you never lock in a win, you always lose greater than or equal to
the last bet won. This means you are going to be under 50% without a lock in.
Only on prolonged winning streaks will you come out ahead without a lock in.
There are a lot of short winning streaks between the prolonged ones.
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