Betting Progression Discussion

The first system has probably been around since betting began, but I found it in a book by Richard Harvey, Blackjack the Smart Way [1999].   One unit = your minimum bet.  A unit could be $5, $25, or more.  In units, the system looks like the following:

1 - 2 - 3 - Repeat

This is the system I used as an example earlier.  You start with one unit, and if you win, go to two units.  If you win two, go to three units.  This is the end of progress.  At this point, repeat the sequence until you lose.  At any point that you lose, drop to one unit and bet one unit until you win.  Then you start the winning progression over again.  This is a simple but effective system.  The most you can lose is three units unless you double or split.

Harvey recommends you play one unit when:

1] You join the table.
2] The deck(s) is (are) shuffled.
3] A new player joins the table.
4] The cards are bad.

One criticism of this system is you must win three in a row to collect any money from the house.  The unit you drag after winning the second bet is your original unit.  My research shows you win three in a row about one out of four series.

When I begin play, I start with this progression.  I like to get a feel for what is happening at the table.  As long as I am winning with this system, I stick with it.  If play becomes “choppy”, I switch to a system that compensates for choppy play by either repeating the first bet or dropping back (regression) on the second bet.  If losing streaks are short such as no more than three in a row, I may add either Popik’s losing series bet, Intermediate System #1, or E-Z bet, Conservative Losing progression.  The goal is to win with the simplest system with the least risk.  Although I demonstrate that you will lose less by using these limited negative progressions, they do add volatility to your game.  There is also more stress when using them, so if I’m winning without them, they aren’t needed.


Simple System 2

The second simple system is one I came up with to begin dragging after the first win.  I have used this successfully and, when the conditions merit, it is a good fall back system.  It is a good “choppy” game system.  The system is harder to manage at times due to its use of half units.  Numerically, in units, it looks like the following:

1 - 1 - 1½ - 2 - 3 - Repeat

As with Harvey’s system, once you lose, you flat bet one unit until you win.  Once you hit the two-unit level, be more conservative.

The advantage to the system is that after each win you drag part of it rather than letting it all ride.  A disadvantage is it will progress at a slightly slower rate.  One more note about this system: when the deck seems to be player biased, the sixth bet could be increased to four units, then dropped down.  Winning streaks of greater than six in a row are very rare, occurring about two to three percent of the total number of groups.


Simple Systems 3 & 4

The source of the next system is Henry J. Tamburin, from his book, Blackjack, Take the Money and Run (1994).  This is about as simple as it gets.  There are two levels, small and large bets.  The small bet is a one-unit wager that is placed after a loss and continued until you win.  The large bet may be two or three units, and is placed after a win and continued until you lose. The sequence is:
win: 2 units, lose: 1 unit; or win: 3 units, lose: 1 unit

Simple System #5

Also from Tamburin, system #4 is a progressive system.  Numerically, it looks like the following in units:

1 - 2 - 3 - 5, then back to 1

When you lose, bet one unit until you win.  Tamburin and others discuss how a progressive bet falls apart when you have a series of win - lose - win - lose….  During these periods you can lose more than you win because you only win a one-unit bet followed by a two-unit loss.  This is referred to as choppy and does occur for short periods.  It is disheartening when it occurs, but it is the price you pay.  The longer winning streaks make up for brief periods of choppiness.

To counter the choppiness, you may flat bet until the period is over, or change to one of the following intermediate systems that compensate for it.  The way they compensate is by making the second bet a one-unit bet and, when lost, go to two units on the next hand (see Intermediate Systems #2 and #3).


Simple System 6

This simple system was a late addition to the systems, but a welcome one.  The origin for this is the book, Progression Blackjack, by Donald Dahl.  The book is an enjoyable read.  He feels progressive betting is the way to win and the days of counting are numbered.  He was inspired by the book How To Win, by Mike Goodman.  His betting sequence in units is as follows:

2-2-3-3-4-4-6-6-10-10-14-14-20-20

He gives a progression for $2 to $100 unit but they all follow the above pattern.  He doesn’t believe in negative or losing progression.  On the losing side he simply flat bets until a win occurs then re-enters the progression above.  If you don’t believe in counting, then you will enjoy Dahl’s book.


Simple System 7

Earlier I mentioned Mike Goodman and how he was the first to publish a book, How to Win, which promoted betting progressions.  His betting progression, in units is as follows:

2 - 4 – 6 – 10 – 10 – 15  ‘til lose

He referred to it as a “slow progression.”  What he meant is you start to pull back some of your winnings, and bet the rest.

Although this looks like it might win more money than the earlier ones, the starting wager is two units rather than one.  Mr. Goodman was a believer in not regressing one’s bet.  He kept pressing the bets and hoped for a long streak.  When a long run of wins occurred, he cleaned up, but until then, his winnings would suffer.  He was not what one would call a “Grinder.”

Intermediate System 8

The source of this system is David Popik and his book titled Winning Blackjack Without Counting Cards (1984).

Numerically, in units, his system is as follows:

W (1) - 2 - 1 - 1 - 1 …until lose

L (1) - 1 - 1 - 2 - 1 …until win

As you can see the system is primarily one-unit bets with strategically placed two-unit bets.  Regarding the win side of the progression, Popik states, “This is a typical example of losing out on winning streaks, but these streaks are few and far between”.  My research shows they aren’t that far apart.  

This is the first progression to use a negative progression.  A negative progression is one where there is an increase in the bet amount when on a losing streak.  You will hear a lot of authors condemn negative progression as risky.  It is if done ad infinitum until one wins (see the Martingale), but as you will see later, no harm is done with a little strategically placed doubling up.  As a matter of fact, the losses decrease with the increase in wager at the L(4) wager.  So, don’t form an opinion just yet.

Intermediate System 9

In 1983, John Patrick wrote a book titled So You Wanna Be A Gambler – Blackjack.  This book is a personal favorite and a great book for your collection.  Although it was written over 20 years ago, I felt like he wrote it with the same convictions and philosophy that I have today.  His basic strategy is more conservative than most.  His system is described as “a regression/progression type of wager, rather than an ordinary straight progression method.”  After the first win, Patrick decreases the wager to one unit.  In doing so, he locks in at least a one-unit profit for that series.  Should you win the second wager, the system progresses until a loss occurs.  On the losing side, he suggests you flat bet two units.  The system was designed to profit even during choppy play.  The reason is that you win two units, then drop down to one unit for the loss to follow.

Numerically it looks like the following:

W (1) - 1 - 2 - 3 - 3 - 4 - 5

L (1) - 2 - 2 - 2         

W (1) is a two-unit starting bet, or is the first win after a losing series.  The reason you only see four bets on the loss side is he feels you should quit if you sustain four losses in a row.  Patrick labeled this progression the New York system because it starts out 2-1-2, and with the loss bet always at two units, it is always 2-1-2.  One of the New York City area codes is 2-1-2, hence the name.

I have only a couple of comments about this ingenious system.  Due to the protection of dropping down to one unit, a side effect is you are to the fourth wager before you finally get to a three-unit bet.  The net effect is to make this a less volatile and slower progression.  Another ingenious characteristic is repeating the 3-unit bet.  By doing this you in effect have another lock in of previous winnings.  Another observation is should you win two bets then lose two, you will be down by one unit.  This system is more aggressive than Popik’s.  Should you have 4, 5, or 6 wins in a row, you are able to capitalize.


Intermediate System 10

George Pappadopoulos in his book Blackjack’s Hidden Secrets (1999) introduces his system which he calls the telephone number system.  The sequence for winning is to start by betting two units.  If you win, drop to one unit.  Should you win again, the third bet would go up to two units.  The fourth progresses to three units, and the fifth progresses to four units.

Numerically it looks like the following:

2 - 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5, etcetera

The losing sequence is as follows:

2 - 2 - 2 - 2

This is very similar to Patrick’s New York system and he acknowledges Patrick for his contribution.  He also suggests you hang around for only four losses.  On the winning side the only difference is that Patrick repeats the three-unit bet before going up to four units, making the Pappadopoulos system a bit more aggressive but without the second lock in.

This seems to be the appropriate time to discuss the 2-1-2 System.  This is a successful system with a logical reason for dropping down to one unit after W (1). However, I think there is more success with a two-unit bet placed there and then drop to one unit.  At first glance to drop down to one unit on the second bet seems to be the proper move.  However, this is not the only factor.  Of the 300 billion hands, 14.33% were double downs and splits.  Also, 4.743% were Blackjacks.  By placing a two-unit bet when the win rate is 25%, rather than the third bet (at 12% win rate), you double the amount won when doubles, splits and blackjacks occur here.  With double the action and high win rates, having a two-unit bet at the second position in effect doubles the win amount.

The following example compares the second spot were you to make bets of five and ten dollars.

$5 or One Unit………Blackjack pays $7.50
                  Double Down pays $10
                  Split Pair pays $10
                  Win the Hand pays $5

$10 or two Units…….Blackjack pays $15
                   Double Down pays $20
                   Split Pair pays $20
                  Win the Hand pays $10

If this doesn’t seem logical to you, stick to the 2-1-2 system.  This is a very good system and you can win money with it.  It especially works well in choppy play.

You must, at some place, drop to one unit or repeat a bet to have a successful progressive winning sequence.  On every hand you have about a 50-50 chance of winning. If you never lock in a win, you always lose greater than or equal to the last bet won.  This means you are going to be under 50% without a lock in.  Only on prolonged winning streaks will you come out ahead without a lock in.  There are a lot of short winning streaks between the prolonged ones.