Playing the Count
Betting the count is just one part of taking full advantage of the knowledge you have when you are counting the cards. You also can make playing changes which are count dependent. The only time when the basic strategy you’ve learned is completely accurate is when the count is completely neutral. Once a round has been played and the count is no longer zero, the rules have changed. Many of the basic strategy plays are based on a tiny advantage. If the mix of tens and small cards changes, the tiny percentage could swing the other way.
For example, with a neutral count in a six deck game, you would normally hit a sixteen versus a dealer ten card. If the count becomes the least bit positive, standing becomes the correct play. The reason of course is the bust rate goes up with an excess of tens or a deficit of small cards. Another example is when to take insurance. Normally you would never take insurance, because it is a bet with a high house advantage. But when the count goes to plus 3 or more, insurance becomes a bet with a player advantage.
Each counting system has its own set of indices. These can number in the 100’s, but many of them can be eliminated from use due to their low frequency of occurrence. Thanks to Don Schlessinger, the most favorable plays were extracted and became known as the Illustrious 18. According to Schlessinger, these top 18 strategy changes yield about 80% of the total benefit from counting. (According to my simulations, this is a bit high.) The most benefit of the 18 is the insurance strategy already mentioned. The second most beneficial is the play of 16 versus a dealer 10 up card. I am going to list all of the 18 for the record, but there are some plays which might tip the pit boss off that you are a card counter. They are splitting tens versus the dealer 5 or 6 up card, doubling on a ten versus the dealer ten up card, and doubling on a ten versus a dealer Ace. If you do any of these, you may become suspicious and might get heat.
The Illustrious 18
1) Insurance
2) 16 v. 10
3) 15 v. 10
4) 10,10 v. 5
5) 10,10 v. 6
6) 10 v. 10
7) 12 v. 3
8) 12 v. 2
9) 11 v. A
10) 9 v. 2
11) 10 v. A
12) 9 v. 7
13) 16 v. 9
14) 13 v. 2
15) 12 v. 4
16) 12 v. 5
17) 12 v. 6
18) 13 v. 3
Since we have already listed four moves which shouldn’t be made, the list has been narrowed down to 14. Now eliminate the bottom two, and you have the Dirty Dozen. These 12 plays will yield 82% of the Illustrious 18. Still too many? OK, I’ll trim them down to eight plays which yield almost 75% of the original 18. They are as follows:
Hand Index
1) Insurance 3
2) 16 v. 10 0
3) 15 v. 10 4
4) 12 v. 3 2
5) 12 v. 2 3
6) 11 v. A 1
7) 9 v. 2 1
8) 9 v. 7 3
Note: The indices are for the commonly used Hi-Lo counting system, and will be different for other systems.
When you are first starting out, these won’t take much effort to learn. As you see, they are in descending order numerically, and also descending order in actual gain. The first three are the highest, accounting for 60% of the gain of the Illustrious 18. Each hand has an associated index. The index is the count which must be met to make the strategy play change. When the index is not met, then Basic Strategy is the correct play. For a complete examination and explanation, refer to Blackjack Attack.
Each author of a strategy has recommendations for strategy modifications. Revere, Wong and others have spent much time developing complete indices for almost every blackjack game. The above is a generic strategy modification, and can’t be everything to all games. Thus, I encourage you to follow the recommendations specific to the counting system you decide to use. If it is too much to learn, then consider the 18 or 12 or 8 top ones, following the index of the author. The Illustrious 18 are going to be the top 18 regardless. Only the index might change from system to system.
