Introduction to Card Counting
Card counting systems originated with Dr. Ed Thorp in his book, Beat the Dealer. His
premise was that certain cards benefit the player and other cards benefit the dealer. When
the remaining cards in a deck or shoe have an excess of ten cards, or tens and Aces, the
player is benefited. When the remaining cards are "rich" in small cards(i.e. 3 to 6, or 2 to
6), the dealer benefits and has an advantage. One thing that occurs when there is an
excess of tens and Aces is an increase in the number of Blackjacks dealt. This is a financial
advantage to the player since he/she receives 3 for 2 on the wager whereas the dealer
receives even money. Also, when tens are rich, more double downs are won than would
normally be. This is unimportant with soft double downs, but very important with hard
double downs. The dealer will more often bust his/her stiff cards also due to drawing a ten
more frequently.
When the count reflects an excess of small cards, the reverse is true. There are fewer
blackjacks, dealers will make a good total out of their stiffs, and player's double downs
receive fewer tens. So, as you can see, knowing the relative composition of the remaining
cards will help you with both betting decisions and playing decisions.
The Plus - Minus System
There have been many ways to count cards dreamed up over the years. They all are
derivations of the plus - minus count which was an early system also conceived by Dr.
Thorp.
A basic counting system consists of assigning a value to groups of cards and, as they
appear, to keep a running total, or count. Dr. Thorp assigned a plus one count to the
numbers 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. So every time one of these number value cards was played, he
would mentally tally plus one. He assigned tens and Aces a value of minus one point, so
every time one of these cards was dealt, he would subtract one from his running total.
An example will help you visualize how it is done. A fresh deck(s) begins with a zero count.
The first hand dealt is a ten - seven. The next player has a five - six, and you receive a
pair of ten cards. The dealer up card is an eight. The first player stands on his 17, the
next player doubles down and receives a card face down. Of course, you stand with your
20. The dealer turns over his hole card and it is a ten, giving him 18. At this time, what is
the count? The first player has a hand valued at minus 1. The seven is not counted (has a
0 value), but the ten is counted as minus 1. The next player has a hand valued at plus 2,
one for each card. At this time, we do not know what the face down card is. So, the count
is minus 1 plus 2, or plus 1. Your hand, with two tens, is valued at minus 2. So, through
your hand the count is plus 1 and minus 2, or minus 1. The value of the dealer hand is
minus 1 because only the ten is counted. Now our subtotal is minus 2. There is only one
card left to count, the face down card of player 2. The dealer turns it over and it is a ten
also. So, we add the minus 2 to the minus 1 and, after the first hand, the count, the
running count, is minus 3.
The running count is the actual count since play began with the fresh deck. However, if
you are using more than one deck, the count must be adjusted for the number of unplayed
decks. This will give one the true count. In the example above, if we are playing with two
decks, we could estimate there are
1 1/2 decks left. We now divide the running count, minus 3, by 1 1/2 and get a true count
of minus 2. If there were 5 decks left unplayed and the running count was plus five, the
true count would be plus 5 divided by 5 or a count of plus 1.
So this is how card counting works. You keep a running count, divide this by the remaining
decks, and you have a true count. Now you have to learn what to do with your hard
earned count.
Bet Variation
The reason for the count is to intelligently vary ones bet. The player will bet the minimum
when the count is plus one or less. Dr. Thorp's system was to simply bet the count in
units. So if the true count was plus 3, he would bet 3 units. So if your unit was $10, with a
+3 count you would bet $30.00. You are betting more because the remaining cards are in
your favor. You may not win, but you have more money bet during these favorable times
and less during neutral or unfavorable times.
Ed Silberstang's point count
Ed Silberstang put forth his plus - minus count in his book, The Winners guide to Casino
Gambling. Mr. Silberstang differs from Dr. Thorp in that he counts fewer cards. He places a
plus 1 value on 3, 4, 5, and 6 value cards, and minus 1 on ten cards only. He keeps a side
count of the Aces to assist with playing decisions, but otherwise, his system is added the
same way as Dr. Thorps.
Mr. Silberstang's betting guidelines for single deck are as follows:
Neutral Deck - Bet 2 units
Unfavorable deck (negative count) - Bet 1 unit
+1 or +2 count - Bet 3 units
+3 or more - Bet 4 units
These two counting systems are the basis of almost any counting systems that followed.
You will find new authors tweaking the above systems, fine tuning them a bit, but they
can't improve on them very much.
Practice, Practice, Practice
If you are determined to become a card counting professional Blackjack player, plan to
dedicate yourself to practicing very hard to excel at it. To get good at card counting, you
need to be able to take a deck or two and keep an accurate count while flipping through
them as fast as you can. When you reach the last card, your count should be zero. If it is
not, you made a mistake. At first, go slow enough to be accurate. Then, build your speed.
Another skill you will need is to be able to judge the remaining decks in the shoe. You do
this by estimating the number of decks in the discard stack and subtracting this from the
beginning number of decks. This is a place where some inaccuracy can creep into your true
count. This reinforces the need to be accurate when counting. Eliminate error as much as
possible. Practice the estimating skill until you are within a few cards of perfect.
Don't Get Caught
So, now you know how to count cards accurately. You should be careful not to get caught.
One way people get caught is by aggressively raising their bet when the count suddenly
becomes much more favorable. This may tip the house that you are a counter. If you
want to raise your two unit bet to eight units, do it in stages, pretending you are simply
doubling up.
Another way to not tip off the dealer or pit boss that you are counting cards is to pretend
you are not paying much attention. This means scan the table quickly and get your count.
Don't stare at each card as it comes out. Make conversation, be friendly, call for a waitress
and order a drink. I frequently carry a strategy card with me to give away that "I'm just
learning the game." Make them think you are an Average Joe non counter.
Why not get caught? A casino is a private club, and reserves the right to ask anyone to
leave at any time. Even though card counting is not cheating, they consider it so and it's
their table. If you are asked to leave, do not protest too much. Cash out and get out. You
will never play in that casino again. This is what is called being Barred form the casino. So,
please be careful and don't give away that you are counting cards. Keep it a secret.
E-Z Count
E-Z Count is a "ballpark" counting system designed to mainly give the player information
for playing decisions. I included it in my book, Easy Blackjack for the Average Joe to help
with playing decisions. It is based on the average number of cards per hand. There are
2.75 cards per hand . Tens compose 30.77% of the deck. Mathematically, there should be
about one ten card for every player/hand at the table, excluding the dealer. Count the
number of tens you see and subtract this from the number of players/hands. When there
are four players, look for four tens. If there were only three, the count is plus one. If there
are six players, you should see six ten cards. If you see eight, the count is minus two.
E-Z Count is most accurate when playing at a table with three to six players/hands. With
only two players, you should see two and a half tens on average. This should provide you
with some information that might be helpful when doubling down, splitting, and hitting
stiffs. Unless the true count gets up to plus four, you might increase your bet a bit. Even if
you are off by one, you're still at plus three, which should merit a unit increase over your
base.
So, you have a basic knowledge on card counting. I suggest you get a good book on the
subject, such as Winning Blackjack for the Serious Player by Edwin Silberstang. He is a
great writer and Blackjack player. I had the honor of meeting him on my last trip to Vegas.
Any book store will either have it in stock, or be able to order it for you. The ISBN is
1-58042-064-8. You can link to Amazon, Barnes and Noble and other booksellers from my
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