Blackjack Tips

Blackjack Tip of the Day: August 15, 2010

I just got an email from a gentleman which reads:

" I was just wondering what you thought of Jerry Patterson's Target 21 stuff So does it work you think?"

My response: Stay, I don't know exactly what Mr. Patterson is selling. I have a couple of copies of his book, and have read the info he gives. If you have the book, Blackjack A Winner's Handbook, read and re-read the information he gives about Target 21.

I'll take a moment to give you my advice about Blackjack:

1 - Pick a favorable game. I just got back from Las Vegas. I found tables with 6 deck shoes and CSM's with 6:5 or even money on Blackjacks. This is absurd, and I'll never play in a place that tries to rip off the players like that. I found a little dive on Boulder highway (Longhorn Casino, near Sam's Town) that had the best rules I have seen since I lived in Reno years ago. The money I won spends just as well as the money I won on the strip. So, find a place with the best rules.

2 - Find a table with a minimum lower than your base bet. If the dealer gets on a roll, it's nice to drop down to $5 or whatever and ride it out. Better yet, take a bathroom break til the next shuffle. When I win, I like to press my bets up. When I lose, I just bet the minimum, or sometimes use a limited negative progression, like 1-1-1-2-4-1.... where I lose three one unit bets in a row, bet two units on the fourth hand, and if i lose this, go up to 4 units. If I lose this one, I drop back to the table min. and ride it out. I took a chance the losing streak would end on the fourth or fifth hand, and as you can see, I only lost an extra 4 units above what I would have lost if flat betting 1 unit. You will be pleasantly surprised how many times you win the fourth or fifth hand and when you do, you have only lost one unit for that series of losses.

If you are uncomfortable with this, as some are opposed to increasing their bet until they win again, then simply ride it out. As for me, I have the balls to do it and I know it's only 4 units extra. Sometimes you have four units out and you get a natural and collect 10 units, or the perfect double down opportunity presents itself, and you win 8 units. This system has worked for me for years.

3- Use some sense. Blackjack is a cyclical game. The casino giveth and the casino taketh away. You have to recognize when the tide turns, assess how much profit you have made, and decide when to bail out. This could mean changing tables or casinos, or quitting that session and having lunch. The casino and that table will be there when you decide to resume play. Do your accounting, pocket some of your profits, and play with the leftovers. Leave the table with some of their cash. Isn't that what you are there for? The longer you play, the more of a chance you will lose your profits back.

4 - Put a limit on how much you are willing to lose. Don't dig into your pocket when that limit is reached. If you have hit that limit, face it, it's not your day. Go play craps or poker if you still want to play.

I hope these tips help. If you want to know more about Blackjack, visit my website: www.averagejoeblackjack.com. There is information on card counting systems and betting progressions. I could use more hits,

Take care, Bill



Blackjack Tip of the Day: August 16, 2006

Steve Tenhouse wrote me and said,

"I learned a lot from your website and had a lot of fun out in Vegas last week. I doubled my $400 stake in two sessions of Blackjack. However, I turned around and dropped $150 of it on my third session. I guess the odds caught up with me. My question centers around when to bail out of a table and call it a night, or come back later. Do you try to keep an eye on your chips and not let yourself slip below a certain percentage of chips that you start with, or get up on?"

I responded: Hello Steve, Thanks for writing. From the way you described it, you still faired pretty well. You are going to have some losing sessions. The best players have them. I use a betting progression which has served me well, but still lose about one of five sessions. The way to avoid a disaster is first to set a loss limit. If you had a session bankroll of $400 and lost $150, you actually did well. Some authors suggest you quit a session after 40 to 50% of the session bankroll is lost. Your loss fell close to that.

Another technique is to set milestones. For instance, if you start a session with $400, and your winning streak starts. Soon you are up $100. At this point, set a $50 loss limit of the $100 won. In other words, take a break if you fall back to being up $50. This guarantees you a winning session. Suppose the winning continues and you are up $200. You can set the fall-back milestone at $50, or increase it to $75. Again, you walk if you lost back $75, but you would have $125 profit. As long as you continue to win, stay at the table. Just keep setting the milestone up as you win.

Blackjack is a cyclical game. If you are winning on the up cycle, and sense a down cycle starting you want to limit how far down you go. One more tip before I go. Keep your chips in small stacks, and continuously know your status. If you are using $25 chips, stack them in $100 stacks. If using $5 chips, make them stacks of five. This makes it easy to look down and total your bankroll. As you win, and start playing with your winnings, separate your original session bankroll from the winnings. Once you are comfortably ahead, consider coloring up the session bankroll to blacks and put them in your pocket. They become untouchable for this session. Play with your winnings, set your milestones, stay sober, and you will be a winner.



Blackjack Tip of the Day:

"Insurance Should you ever take insurance?"

In general the odds are against you so the answer is no. You will see people insuring their 16's on a hunch that the dealer has a ten in the hole. If you have played much Blackjack, you have seen them. They are either ignorant of the odds, or they might just be stupid. The odds of the dealer having a Blackjack are the odds of getting a ten at any time: 4/13, or roughly 31%. That means that 69% of the time he/she doesn't have a ten. Granted, insurance pays 2 for 1, so if you double the return, you have effectively doubled the odds. OK, so now it pays 62%. Still, 69-62 equals a house edge of 7%. By my standards this is pretty steep. So my advice is don't take insurance most of the time. The one place when I take insurance is when I have a Blackjack.

There are two main reasons why I insure a Blackjack:

1) The difference in the long run is minuscule. From my computer studies I tested taking insurance and found a loss of 7.5% for 77 million insured hands. The incidence of you and the dealer receiving a Blackjack at the same time is 0.352% of the time. So let's say your average bet is $10. $10.00 times 0.075 times 0.00352 equals 0.264 cents per hand or about a quarter per 100 hands. To me this is negligible.

2) I use progressive betting and unless I have a one unit bet out, I want a win more than the 0.262 cents above. When progressive betting, you may have several units out, and it would be a shame to not insure and push, then get a stiff hand following the Blackjack. For more information about progressive betting, refer to my book. It contains 12 progressive betting strategies from which to choose.

Bankroll Most authors agree that a bankroll for one session of Blackjack should be forty times (40X) your base bet. What this means is if your base bet is $5, then for that session you should have $200 available. If you are planning three sessions that day, have $600 available, but only take $200 to the table at one time.

Do not confuse your session bankroll with your session loss limit. They are two different amounts. The session $200 is your loss limit plus a reserve. The reserve is there if you need it. For example, you have set a loss limit of $100, and you have lost $80 of it. You bet $10 and you get a pair of eights. The dealer has a 6 up card. You must split them, so you place another $10 out there. This hits your loss limit if you lose both bets. On the first eight you receive a three, giving you a total of 11. This is a great double down hand, so you must risk another $10 to double down. Now, you are dipping into the reserve and risk losing greater than your loss limit. However, most of the profit in playing Blackjack is made when you have a good double down opportunity, and this is one. If you lose all the bets, you have exceeded your loss limit, but you did it for a good money making opportunity, not because you slowly lost more than your limit. You must not be scared and overly cautious here. Risk exceeding your loss limit in this situation.

Now, here's a little reality. I seldom dip very far into the first $100, much less the second. The reason is that using progressive betting, I am seldom down. I have an occasional losing session, but I win between 2/3 and 3/4 of my sessions. So, in my opinion having 40X your base bet is ideal, but I wouldn't have any qualms with 20X. So, if you are going to bet $10 unit, have about $200 and you will do fine. Try to double it, but don't bring out any more if you lose it all. For the $5 bettor, $100 should be enough with which to play.

Yield Not To Temptation An area to discuss is whether you should drink while playing Blackjack. My recommendation is to stay as sober as possible. Many a fool has been separated from their bankroll by a few cheap drinks. The more uninhibited you are, the more the casino likes it. It is almost impossible to drink when card counting. You can't afford to lose your mental edge. Having said that, you want to fit in as Joe Gambler and not a counter. In this case, get a drink and make sure the pit boss sees you. Then nurse it as long as you can. You give the appearance of a normal gambler, having a good time, and can disguise your counting.

If you are progressing your bets, you can be a little more of a party animal. Again, you don't want to get drunk, or uninhibited, but you can have a few drinks during a session and still do well. If you are using a simple or intermediate betting progression, you can have a few drinks, enjoy yourself, and still win. You might alternate alcohol with a soda so you never risk getting high. Know yourself, and your limitations.

Should you find yourself a little high, you must stop gambling. Pick up your chips, color up, and go sober up. You must let it wear off before you start another session.