Archived Tips
Blackjack Tip of the Day:
Insurance
Should you ever take insurance? In general the odds are against you so the
answer is no. You will see people insuring their 16's on a hunch that the dealer
has a ten in the hole. If you have played much Blackjack, you have seen them.
They are either ignorant of the odds, or they might just be stupid. The odds of
the dealer having a Blackjack are the odds of getting a ten at any time: 4/13, or
roughly 31%. That means that 69% of the time he/she doesn't have a ten.
Granted, insurance pays 2 for 1, so if you double the return, you have effectively
doubled the odds. OK, so now it pays 62%. Still, 69-62 equals a house edge of
7%. By my standards this is pretty steep. So my advice is don't take insurance
most of the time.
The one place when I take insurance is when I have a Blackjack. There are two
main reasons why I insure a Blackjack:
1) The difference in the long run is minuscule. From my computer studies I
tested taking insurance and found a loss of 7.5% for 77 million insured hands.
The incidence of you and the dealer receiving a Blackjack at the same time is
0.352% of the time. So let's say your average bet is $10. $10.00 times 0.075
times 0.00352 equals 0.264 cents per hand or about a quarter per 100 hands.
To me this is negligible.
2) I use progressive betting and unless I have a one unit bet out, I want a win
more than the 0.262 cents above. When progressive betting, you may have
several units out, and it would be a shame to not insure and push, then get a stiff
hand following the Blackjack.
For more information about progressive betting, refer to my book. It contains
12 progressive betting strategies from which to choose.
Bankroll
Most authors agree that a bankroll for one session of Blackjack should be forty
times (40X) your base bet. What this means is if your base bet is $5, then for
that session you should have $200 available. If you are planning three sessions
that day, have $600 available, but only take $200 to the table at one time.
Do not confuse your session bankroll with your session loss limit. They are two
different amounts. The session $200 is your loss limit plus a reserve. The
reserve is there if you need it. For example, you have set a loss limit of $100,
and you have lost $80 of it. You bet $10 and you get a pair of eights. The
dealer has a 6 up card. You must split them, so you place another $10 out
there. This hits your loss limit if you lose both bets. On the first eight you
receive a three, giving you a total of 11. This is a great double down hand, so
you must risk another $10 to double down. Now, you are dipping into the
reserve and risk losing greater than your loss limit. However, most of the profit
in playing Blackjack is made when you have a good double down opportunity,
and this is one. If you lose all the bets, you have exceeded your loss limit, but
you did it for a good money making opportunity, not because you slowly lost
more than your limit. You must not be scared and overly cautious here. Risk
exceeding your loss limit in this situation.
Now, here's a little reality. I seldom dip very far into the first $100, much less
the second. The reason is that using progressive betting, I am seldom down. I
have an occasional losing session, but I win between 2/3 and 3/4 of my
sessions. So, in my opinion having 40X your base bet is ideal, but I wouldn't
have any qualms with 20X. So, if you are going to bet $10 unit, have about
$200 and you will do fine. Try to double it, but don't bring out any more if you
lose it all. For the $5 bettor, $100 should be enough with which to play.
Yield Not To Temptation
An area to discuss is whether you should drink while
playing Blackjack. My recommendation is to stay as
sober as possible. Many a fool has been separated from
their bankroll by a few cheap drinks. The more
uninhibited you are, the more the casino likes it. It is
almost impossible to drink when card counting. You can't afford to lose your
mental edge. Having said that, you want to fit in as Joe Gambler and not a
counter. In this case, get a drink and make sure the pit boss sees you. Then
nurse it as long as you can. You give the appearance of a normal gambler,
having a good time, and can disguise your counting.
If you are progressing your bets, you can be a little more of a party animal.
Again, you don't want to get drunk, or uninhibited, but you can have a few drinks
during a session and still do well. If you are using a simple or intermediate
betting progression, you can have a few drinks, enjoy yourself, and still win.
You might alternate alcohol with a soda so you never risk getting high. Know
yourself, and your limitations.
Should you find yourself a little high, you must stop gambling. Pick up your
chips, color up, and go sober up. You must let it wear off before you start
another session.
Insurance
Should you ever take insurance? In general the odds are against you so the
answer is no. You will see people insuring their 16's on a hunch that the dealer
has a ten in the hole. If you have played much Blackjack, you have seen them.
They are either ignorant of the odds, or they might just be stupid. The odds of
the dealer having a Blackjack are the odds of getting a ten at any time: 4/13, or
roughly 31%. That means that 69% of the time he/she doesn't have a ten.
Granted, insurance pays 2 for 1, so if you double the return, you have effectively
doubled the odds. OK, so now it pays 62%. Still, 69-62 equals a house edge of
7%. By my standards this is pretty steep. So my advice is don't take insurance
most of the time.
The one place when I take insurance is when I have a Blackjack. There are two
main reasons why I insure a Blackjack:
1) The difference in the long run is minuscule. From my computer studies I
tested taking insurance and found a loss of 7.5% for 77 million insured hands.
The incidence of you and the dealer receiving a Blackjack at the same time is
0.352% of the time. So let's say your average bet is $10. $10.00 times 0.075
times 0.00352 equals 0.264 cents per hand or about a quarter per 100 hands.
To me this is negligible.
2) I use progressive betting and unless I have a one unit bet out, I want a win
more than the 0.262 cents above. When progressive betting, you may have
several units out, and it would be a shame to not insure and push, then get a stiff
hand following the Blackjack.
For more information about progressive betting, refer to my book. It contains
12 progressive betting strategies from which to choose.
Bankroll
Most authors agree that a bankroll for one session of Blackjack should be forty
times (40X) your base bet. What this means is if your base bet is $5, then for
that session you should have $200 available. If you are planning three sessions
that day, have $600 available, but only take $200 to the table at one time.
Do not confuse your session bankroll with your session loss limit. They are two
different amounts. The session $200 is your loss limit plus a reserve. The
reserve is there if you need it. For example, you have set a loss limit of $100,
and you have lost $80 of it. You bet $10 and you get a pair of eights. The
dealer has a 6 up card. You must split them, so you place another $10 out
there. This hits your loss limit if you lose both bets. On the first eight you
receive a three, giving you a total of 11. This is a great double down hand, so
you must risk another $10 to double down. Now, you are dipping into the
reserve and risk losing greater than your loss limit. However, most of the profit
in playing Blackjack is made when you have a good double down opportunity,
and this is one. If you lose all the bets, you have exceeded your loss limit, but
you did it for a good money making opportunity, not because you slowly lost
more than your limit. You must not be scared and overly cautious here. Risk
exceeding your loss limit in this situation.
Now, here's a little reality. I seldom dip very far into the first $100, much less
the second. The reason is that using progressive betting, I am seldom down. I
have an occasional losing session, but I win between 2/3 and 3/4 of my
sessions. So, in my opinion having 40X your base bet is ideal, but I wouldn't
have any qualms with 20X. So, if you are going to bet $10 unit, have about
$200 and you will do fine. Try to double it, but don't bring out any more if you
lose it all. For the $5 bettor, $100 should be enough with which to play.
Yield Not To Temptation
An area to discuss is whether you should drink while
playing Blackjack. My recommendation is to stay as
sober as possible. Many a fool has been separated from
their bankroll by a few cheap drinks. The more
uninhibited you are, the more the casino likes it. It is
almost impossible to drink when card counting. You can't afford to lose your
mental edge. Having said that, you want to fit in as Joe Gambler and not a
counter. In this case, get a drink and make sure the pit boss sees you. Then
nurse it as long as you can. You give the appearance of a normal gambler,
having a good time, and can disguise your counting.
If you are progressing your bets, you can be a little more of a party animal.
Again, you don't want to get drunk, or uninhibited, but you can have a few drinks
during a session and still do well. If you are using a simple or intermediate
betting progression, you can have a few drinks, enjoy yourself, and still win.
You might alternate alcohol with a soda so you never risk getting high. Know
yourself, and your limitations.
Should you find yourself a little high, you must stop gambling. Pick up your
chips, color up, and go sober up. You must let it wear off before you start
another session.
