Archived Tips
Blackjack Tip of the Day:
Insurance
Should you ever take insurance? In general the odds are against you so
the answer is no. You will see people insuring their 16's on a hunch that
the dealer has a ten in the hole. If you have played much Blackjack, you
have seen them. They are either ignorant of the odds, or they might
just be stupid. The odds of the dealer having a Blackjack are the odds
of getting a ten at any time: 4/13, or roughly 31%. That means that
69% of the time he/she doesn't have a ten. Granted, insurance pays 2
for 1, so if you double the return, you have effectively doubled the odds.
OK, so now it pays 62%. Still, 69-62 equals a house edge of 7%. By my
standards this is pretty steep. So my advice is don't take insurance
most of the time.
The one place when I take insurance is when I have a Blackjack. There
are two main reasons why I insure a Blackjack:
1) The difference in the long run is minuscule. From my computer
studies I tested taking insurance and found a loss of 7.5% for 77 million
insured hands. The incidence of you and the dealer receiving a
Blackjack at the same time is 0.352% of the time. So let's say your
average bet is $10. $10.00 times 0.075 times 0.00352 equals 0.264
cents per hand or about a quarter per 100 hands. To me this is
negligible.
2) I use progressive betting and unless I have a one unit bet out, I
want a win more than the 0.262 cents above. When progressive
betting, you may have several units out, and it would be a shame to not
insure and push, then get a stiff hand following the Blackjack.
For more information about progressive betting, refer to my book. It
contains 12 progressive betting strategies from which to choose.
Bankroll
Most authors agree that a bankroll for one session of Blackjack should
be forty times (40X) your base bet. What this means is if your base bet
is $5, then for that session you should have $200 available. If you are
planning three sessions that day, have $600 available, but only take
$200 to the table at one time.
Do not confuse your session bankroll with your session loss limit. They
are two different amounts. The session $200 is your loss limit plus a
reserve. The reserve is there if you need it. For example, you have set
a loss limit of $100, and you have lost $80 of it. You bet $10 and you
get a pair of eights. The dealer has a 6 up card. You must split them,
so you place another $10 out there. This hits your loss limit if you lose
both bets. On the first eight you receive a three, giving you a total of
11. This is a great double down hand, so you must risk another $10 to
double down. Now, you are dipping into the reserve and risk losing
greater than your loss limit. However, most of the profit in playing
Blackjack is made when you have a good double down opportunity, and
this is one. If you lose all the bets, you have exceeded your loss limit,
but you did it for a good money making opportunity, not because you
slowly lost more than your limit. You must not be scared and overly
cautious here. Risk exceeding your loss limit in this situation.
Now, here's a little reality. I seldom dip very far into the first $100,
much less the second. The reason is that using progressive betting, I
am seldom down. I have an occasional losing session, but I win
between 2/3 and 3/4 of my sessions. So, in my opinion having 40X your
base bet is ideal, but I wouldn't have any qualms with 20X. So, if you
are going to bet $10 unit, have about $200 and you will do fine. Try to
double it, but don't bring out any more if you lose it all. For the $5
bettor, $100 should be enough with which to play.
Yield Not To Temptation
An area to discuss is whether you should drink while
playing Blackjack. My recommendation is to stay as
sober as possible. Many a fool has been separated from
their bankroll by a few cheap drinks. The more
uninhibited you are, the more the casino likes it. It is
almost impossible to drink when card counting. You can't afford to lose
your mental edge. Having said that, you want to fit in as Joe Gambler
and not a counter. In this case, get a drink and make sure the pit boss
sees you. Then nurse it as long as you can. You give the appearance of
a normal gambler, having a good time, and can disguise your counting.
If you are progressing your bets, you can be a little more of a party
animal. Again, you don't want to get drunk, or uninhibited, but you can
have a few drinks during a session and still do well. If you are using a
simple or intermediate betting progression, you can have a few drinks,
enjoy yourself, and still win. You might alternate alcohol with a soda so
you never risk getting high. Know yourself, and your limitations.
Should you find yourself a little high, you must stop gambling. Pick up
your chips, color up, and go sober up. You must let it wear off before
you start another session.
