Archived Tips
Blackjack Tip of the Day:
Insurance
Should you ever take insurance? In general the odds are against you so the answer is no. You will see people
insuring their 16's on a hunch that the dealer has a ten in the hole. If you have played much Blackjack, you have
seen them. They are either ignorant of the odds, or they might just be stupid. The odds of the dealer having a
Blackjack are the odds of getting a ten at any time: 4/13, or roughly 31%. That means that 69% of the time
he/she doesn't have a ten. Granted, insurance pays 2 for 1, so if you double the return, you have effectively
doubled the odds. OK, so now it pays 62%. Still, 69-62 equals a house edge of 7%. By my standards this is pretty
steep. So my advice is don't take insurance most of the time.
The one place when I take insurance is when I have a Blackjack. There are two main reasons why I insure a
Blackjack:
1) The difference in the long run is minuscule. From my computer studies I tested taking insurance and found a
loss of 7.5% for 77 million insured hands. The incidence of you and the dealer receiving a Blackjack at the same
time is 0.352% of the time. So let's say your average bet is $10. $10.00 times 0.075 times 0.00352 equals
0.264 cents per hand or about a quarter per 100 hands. To me this is negligible.
2) I use progressive betting and unless I have a one unit bet out, I want a win more than the 0.262 cents above.
When progressive betting, you may have several units out, and it would be a shame to not insure and push, then
get a stiff hand following the Blackjack.
For more information about progressive betting, refer to my book. It contains 12 progressive betting strategies
from which to choose.
Bankroll
Most authors agree that a bankroll for one session of Blackjack should be forty times (40X) your base bet. What
this means is if your base bet is $5, then for that session you should have $200 available. If you are planning
three sessions that day, have $600 available, but only take $200 to the table at one time.
Do not confuse your session bankroll with your session loss limit. They are two different amounts. The session
$200 is your loss limit plus a reserve. The reserve is there if you need it. For example, you have set a loss limit
of $100, and you have lost $80 of it. You bet $10 and you get a pair of eights. The dealer has a 6 up card. You
must split them, so you place another $10 out there. This hits your loss limit if you lose both bets. On the first
eight you receive a three, giving you a total of 11. This is a great double down hand, so you must risk another $10
to double down. Now, you are dipping into the reserve and risk losing greater than your loss limit. However, most
of the profit in playing Blackjack is made when you have a good double down opportunity, and this is one. If you
lose all the bets, you have exceeded your loss limit, but you did it for a good money making opportunity, not
because you slowly lost more than your limit. You must not be scared and overly cautious here. Risk exceeding
your loss limit in this situation.
Now, here's a little reality. I seldom dip very far into the first $100, much less the second. The reason is that
using progressive betting, I am seldom down. I have an occasional losing session, but I win between 2/3 and 3/4
of my sessions. So, in my opinion having 40X your base bet is ideal, but I wouldn't have any qualms with 20X. So,
if you are going to bet $10 unit, have about $200 and you will do fine. Try to double it, but don't bring out any
more if you lose it all. For the $5 bettor, $100 should be enough with which to play.
Yield Not To Temptation
An area to discuss is whether you should drink while
playing Blackjack. My recommendation is to stay as
sober as possible. Many a fool has been separated from
their bankroll by a few cheap drinks. The more
uninhibited you are, the more the casino likes it. It is
almost impossible to drink when card counting. You can't afford to lose your mental edge. Having said that, you
want to fit in as Joe Gambler and not a counter. In this case, get a drink and make sure the pit boss sees you.
Then nurse it as long as you can. You give the appearance of a normal gambler, having a good time, and can
disguise your counting.
If you are progressing your bets, you can be a little more of a party animal. Again, you don't want to get drunk, or
uninhibited, but you can have a few drinks during a session and still do well. If you are using a simple or
intermediate betting progression, you can have a few drinks, enjoy yourself, and still win. You might alternate
alcohol with a soda so you never risk getting high. Know yourself, and your limitations.
Should you find yourself a little high, you must stop gambling. Pick up your chips, color up, and go sober up. You
must let it wear off before you start another session.
Insurance
Should you ever take insurance? In general the odds are against you so the answer is no. You will see people
insuring their 16's on a hunch that the dealer has a ten in the hole. If you have played much Blackjack, you have
seen them. They are either ignorant of the odds, or they might just be stupid. The odds of the dealer having a
Blackjack are the odds of getting a ten at any time: 4/13, or roughly 31%. That means that 69% of the time
he/she doesn't have a ten. Granted, insurance pays 2 for 1, so if you double the return, you have effectively
doubled the odds. OK, so now it pays 62%. Still, 69-62 equals a house edge of 7%. By my standards this is pretty
steep. So my advice is don't take insurance most of the time.
The one place when I take insurance is when I have a Blackjack. There are two main reasons why I insure a
Blackjack:
1) The difference in the long run is minuscule. From my computer studies I tested taking insurance and found a
loss of 7.5% for 77 million insured hands. The incidence of you and the dealer receiving a Blackjack at the same
time is 0.352% of the time. So let's say your average bet is $10. $10.00 times 0.075 times 0.00352 equals
0.264 cents per hand or about a quarter per 100 hands. To me this is negligible.
2) I use progressive betting and unless I have a one unit bet out, I want a win more than the 0.262 cents above.
When progressive betting, you may have several units out, and it would be a shame to not insure and push, then
get a stiff hand following the Blackjack.
For more information about progressive betting, refer to my book. It contains 12 progressive betting strategies
from which to choose.
Bankroll
Most authors agree that a bankroll for one session of Blackjack should be forty times (40X) your base bet. What
this means is if your base bet is $5, then for that session you should have $200 available. If you are planning
three sessions that day, have $600 available, but only take $200 to the table at one time.
Do not confuse your session bankroll with your session loss limit. They are two different amounts. The session
$200 is your loss limit plus a reserve. The reserve is there if you need it. For example, you have set a loss limit
of $100, and you have lost $80 of it. You bet $10 and you get a pair of eights. The dealer has a 6 up card. You
must split them, so you place another $10 out there. This hits your loss limit if you lose both bets. On the first
eight you receive a three, giving you a total of 11. This is a great double down hand, so you must risk another $10
to double down. Now, you are dipping into the reserve and risk losing greater than your loss limit. However, most
of the profit in playing Blackjack is made when you have a good double down opportunity, and this is one. If you
lose all the bets, you have exceeded your loss limit, but you did it for a good money making opportunity, not
because you slowly lost more than your limit. You must not be scared and overly cautious here. Risk exceeding
your loss limit in this situation.
Now, here's a little reality. I seldom dip very far into the first $100, much less the second. The reason is that
using progressive betting, I am seldom down. I have an occasional losing session, but I win between 2/3 and 3/4
of my sessions. So, in my opinion having 40X your base bet is ideal, but I wouldn't have any qualms with 20X. So,
if you are going to bet $10 unit, have about $200 and you will do fine. Try to double it, but don't bring out any
more if you lose it all. For the $5 bettor, $100 should be enough with which to play.
Yield Not To Temptation
An area to discuss is whether you should drink while
playing Blackjack. My recommendation is to stay as
sober as possible. Many a fool has been separated from
their bankroll by a few cheap drinks. The more
uninhibited you are, the more the casino likes it. It is
almost impossible to drink when card counting. You can't afford to lose your mental edge. Having said that, you
want to fit in as Joe Gambler and not a counter. In this case, get a drink and make sure the pit boss sees you.
Then nurse it as long as you can. You give the appearance of a normal gambler, having a good time, and can
disguise your counting.
If you are progressing your bets, you can be a little more of a party animal. Again, you don't want to get drunk, or
uninhibited, but you can have a few drinks during a session and still do well. If you are using a simple or
intermediate betting progression, you can have a few drinks, enjoy yourself, and still win. You might alternate
alcohol with a soda so you never risk getting high. Know yourself, and your limitations.
Should you find yourself a little high, you must stop gambling. Pick up your chips, color up, and go sober up. You
must let it wear off before you start another session.
Blackjack Tip of the Day:
August 16, 2006
Steve Tenhouse wrote me and said, "I learned a lot from your website and had a lot of fun out in Vegas last
week. I doubled my $400 stake in two sessions of Blackjack. However, I turned around and dropped $150
of it on my third session. I guess the odds caught up with me.
My question centers around when to bail out of a table and call it a night, or come back later. Do you try to
keep an eye on your chips and not let yourself slip below a certain percentage of chips that you start with,
or get up on?
I responded:
Hello Steve,
Thanks for writing. From the way you described it, you still faired pretty well. You are going to have some
losing sessions. The best players have them. I use a betting progression which has served me well, but
still lose about one of five sessions. The way to avoid a disaster is first to set a loss limit. If you had a
session bankroll of $400 and lost $150, you actually did well. Some authors suggest you quit a session
after 40 to 50% of the session bankroll is lost. Your loss fell close to that.
Another technique is to set milestones. For instance, if you start a session with $400, and your winning
streak starts. Soon you are up $100. At this point, set a $50 loss limit of the $100 won. In other words,
take a break if you fall back to being up $50. This guarantees you a winning session. Suppose the winning
continues and you are up $200. You can set the fall-back milestone at $50, or increase it to $75. Again, you
walk if you lost back $75, but you would have $125 profit. As long as you continue to win, stay at the table.
Just keep setting the milestone up as you win.
Blackjack is a cyclical game. If you are winning on the up cycle, and sense a down cycle starting you want to
limit how far down you go. One more tip before I go. Keep your chips in small stacks, and continuously
know your status. If you are using $25 chips, stack them in $100 stacks. If using $5 chips, make them
stacks of five. This makes it easy to look down and total your bankroll. As you win, and start playing with
your winnings, separate your original session bankroll from the winnings. Once you are comfortably ahead,
consider coloring up the session bankroll to blacks and put them in your pocket. They become untouchable
for this session. Play with your winnings, set your milestones, stay sober, and you will be a winner.
August 16, 2006
Steve Tenhouse wrote me and said, "I learned a lot from your website and had a lot of fun out in Vegas last
week. I doubled my $400 stake in two sessions of Blackjack. However, I turned around and dropped $150
of it on my third session. I guess the odds caught up with me.
My question centers around when to bail out of a table and call it a night, or come back later. Do you try to
keep an eye on your chips and not let yourself slip below a certain percentage of chips that you start with,
or get up on?
I responded:
Hello Steve,
Thanks for writing. From the way you described it, you still faired pretty well. You are going to have some
losing sessions. The best players have them. I use a betting progression which has served me well, but
still lose about one of five sessions. The way to avoid a disaster is first to set a loss limit. If you had a
session bankroll of $400 and lost $150, you actually did well. Some authors suggest you quit a session
after 40 to 50% of the session bankroll is lost. Your loss fell close to that.
Another technique is to set milestones. For instance, if you start a session with $400, and your winning
streak starts. Soon you are up $100. At this point, set a $50 loss limit of the $100 won. In other words,
take a break if you fall back to being up $50. This guarantees you a winning session. Suppose the winning
continues and you are up $200. You can set the fall-back milestone at $50, or increase it to $75. Again, you
walk if you lost back $75, but you would have $125 profit. As long as you continue to win, stay at the table.
Just keep setting the milestone up as you win.
Blackjack is a cyclical game. If you are winning on the up cycle, and sense a down cycle starting you want to
limit how far down you go. One more tip before I go. Keep your chips in small stacks, and continuously
know your status. If you are using $25 chips, stack them in $100 stacks. If using $5 chips, make them
stacks of five. This makes it easy to look down and total your bankroll. As you win, and start playing with
your winnings, separate your original session bankroll from the winnings. Once you are comfortably ahead,
consider coloring up the session bankroll to blacks and put them in your pocket. They become untouchable
for this session. Play with your winnings, set your milestones, stay sober, and you will be a winner.